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They can earn the right to play all summer. Or it can all end this week before most people even notice what they started.
That's the daunting aspect of Canada's participation in this week's last-chance Olympic qualifying tournament in Athens.
A single slip and Canada's uphill slog to international basketball respectability would hit yet another roadblock. A few well-timed performances against the right teams and Canadian men would be part of the Olympic basketball tournament for only the second time in 20 years.
“We have a very slim margin for error,” head coach Leo Rautins said before the team departed for Europe. “We have to do everything right.”
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The tournament format demands it: There are four groups of three teams each. The top two teams in each group will advance to the quarter-finals. Lose in the quarters and you're done. Advance to the semi-final round and you still need one more win – either in the semi-final or in the bronze-medal game between the two semi-final losers – to earn one of three spots in Beijing next month.
Host Greece is the favourite, leaving Canada in the mix with the likes of Brazil, Croatia, Slovenia and Puerto Rico in a tournament most experts consider too close to call.
Gaining the right to play in Athens this week by finishing fifth at the Tournament of the Americas was considered a triumph of sorts reflects the sad state of the national team program since Steve Nash steered a Jay Triano-coached team to a 7-2 record in Sydney in 2000.
The core of this edition came together for the Tournament of the Americas in 2005. It was Rautins's debut as a head coach at any level, as he took over for popular Triano. Nash had retired from international competition.
It ended badly, as a young team with questionable chemistry skidded to a ninth-place finish and failed to qualify for the world championships for the first time.
But with two more years of experience, a general rise in talent and the addition of NBA big men – Sam Dalembert of the Philadelphia 76ers last season and Joel Anthony this summer – Rautins is optimistic that a return to the Olympics and respectability is at hand.
Canada finished fourth at the 1988 Games, but failed to qualify for the Olympics of 1992, 1996 and 2004.
“The way we're capable of playing as a team, good things will happen,” Dalembert said. “It's going to be an interesting thing. We're going to surprise a lot of people and maybe surprise ourselves.”
Canada will get a sharp test against Slovenia in its opener, which will be broadcast live on The Score at 6 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Canada's game against Korea will be shown on The Score at 6 a.m. Wednesday.
The veteran Slovenian side features former Toronto Raptor Rasho Nesterovic, but is missing some key players because of injury. Canada in theory would be favoured over Korea, but the Asian country uses the three-pointer at will and is a threat if shooting well.
Canada's quarter-final opponent would likely be either Croatia or Puerto Rico, both tough, veteran teams – though not insurmountable.
Because of the rapid-fire nature of the event – a successful result could mean playing five games in six days – there won't be too much time to worry about their opponents. The plan is to focus on their own game first.
“The coaching staff, rightfully so, has made the focus on us and what we do, not worrying too much about the opponent, but forcing the opponent to worry about what we do,” said Rowan Barrett, the national team veteran and the only member of the 2000 Olympic team on the club.
Barrett returned to the national team after a five-year absence and is impressed with what he sees.
“This team is deeper and more talented than our group, that's for sure,” said Barrett, who will start at shooting guard and is one of only two players older than 30 on the team. “At the same time, we were a more experienced group. … There was no issues with roles. With this group, we're still forming that.”
Canada's athleticism is most pronounced among its big men.
Dalembert, Anthony – both from Montreal – and Levon Kendall of Vancouver are all adept at running the floor and will provide Canada with a rebounding and shot-blocking advantage. Olu Famutimi of Toronto is a high-flying small forward who is on the NBA radar in part because of his ability to play above the rim. Carl English of Newfoundland provides scoring punch off the bench.
The goal is to use defensive pressure to key Canada's transition game.
With no real prospect of a return for Nash, point guard is a question mark only because Canada has no proven backup when Jermaine Anderson isn't on the floor. Tyler Kepkay of Vancouver and Andy Rautins – Leo's son – both played minutes there in exhibition play, but are untested at the position internationally.
In a short tournament, it's a weakness they might be able to work around or it might be exploited by smart, veteran teams.
Canada has put itself in a position to find out where they really stand – but that's only half the battle.
