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VIENNA — Russia plays its first game today, against Spain. Nobody expects Russia to do particularly well here. Certainly, nobody fears Russia the way Croatia is feared.
But here's the thing – the population of Russia is 141 million and Croatia is a country of 4.4 million people. Croatia, as any one if its thousands of travelling fans will tell you, repeatedly, has qualified for three European championships and two World Cup tournaments, reaching the semi-finals in 1998.
What gives? Well, it's a story and I'm in the right place to tell it. Vienna stands at the crossroads of central Europe, a good vantage point for a glance at the state of soccer in the surrounding countries. And at how much has changed in the past two decades. Russia is at the heart of the story because of what it was – the Soviet Union.
Twenty years ago this month, Euro 1988 was held in the old West Germany. Only eight countries participated (the Netherlands won) and, though nobody knew it at the time, it would be the last championship tournament for the old Europe done in the old way.
By the time Euro 1992 started, still only eight countries took part, but the Soviet Union was breaking up, the world was changing and so was the hierarchy of European soccer. At Euro 1992, the Soviet Union played as the Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose affiliation of players from a bunch of former Soviet republics. Four years after that, at Euro 1996, it was 16 countries competing at the tournament.
Not only were there more than a dozen newly independent, former Soviet-controlled countries vying for qualification, but Yugoslavia had broken up and, from the Balkans, the upstart Croatia had actually made it to the tournament. Also, there was this new-old country called Russia there.
Euro 1996 was the future of European soccer encapsulated. All those new little countries had teams that could, on the right day, defeat any of the superpowers. It's still happening. Croatia made sure England didn't qualify for this tournament and many will remember that Scotland was on an excellent run toward qualification until it met Georgia.
Croatia, of course, ended up as the poster team for the new reality. It is the most successful of the post-1988 countries, but far from unique in its spirit and determination. Every one of the bigger soccer powers has come to understand the different reality that arrived in the 1990s – in soccer, those new, small countries had players with huge pride and a fierce determination to strut on the big stage at big tournaments.
For the traditional powers of Western Europe, a qualifying campaign for the World Cup or Euro Championship could now mean a trip to Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Estonia, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania or several other places. In all those countries, a player appearing for his national team is fuelled by something other than professionalism. There is an extraordinary, transcendent will to prove the worth of the country. And it shows in results.
Macedonia is hard to beat. Moldova is now tough to beat. Ukraine breezed into World Cup 2006 with an amazing series of victories, and is likely to rise again.
In soccer, Russia has never really adapted to the new reality. As a former superpower in everything, including soccer, and a colonizer, it cannot have the sort of fervent self-belief that tiny countries can muster. And on many days, a former colony is a good bet to beat the colonizer. Because the game is about something in the soul, about justifying the existence of a country, and that can't be measured in any stats.
Russia has a handful of good players going into this tournament. But its most important figure is head coach Guus Hiddink. He's not Russian, so he's not burdened by the past. He's the Dutchman who took South Korea to stunning success in World Cup 2002 and took Australia to World Cup 2006 and out of the first round.
Hiddink knows that in soccer, just as a small man can beat a big man on the ball, a small country can go far on strength of will. What he's got in Russia is a big country with a small spirit and as Croatia has shown, it's about spirit.
That's the story, the new reality of European soccer these days. And Russia's story is still unfolding.
