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Numbers don't lie for Raptors

From Saturday's Globe and Mail

TORONTO — They came raining down at such a mad rate that it looked like the Toronto Raptors' postseason hopes were going to get washed away in the flood.

But after that Game 1 first-quarter three-point storm by the Orlando Magic, their vaunted perimeter attack — the best in the NBA during the regular season — has slowed to a trickle.

The numbers don't lie: Orlando was 9-for-11 from beyond the arc in the first quarter of Game 1, setting an NBA playoff record in the process, but are just 21-for-76 since (27.6 per cent).

And while the Magic still lead the best-of-seven series 2-1, the Raptors have won seven of the past 11 quarters.

It's a significant development for a couple of reasons.

The first is that Orlando was the best three-point-shooting team in the NBA all year long, converting 803 attempts and shooting 38.6 per cent. The Raptors gave up 619 threes, third most in the NBA, and allowed teams to shoot a comfortable 37.8 per cent.

It looked to be the key statistical battleground of the series, and the Raptors appear to be winning it as they get ready to host Orlando at the Air Canada Centre this afternoon for Game 4 of their first-round Eastern Conference playoff series, with Game 5 set for Monday in Florida.

"Don't say it, don't say it," Toronto guard Anthony Parker said when informed of the Magic's three-point shooting struggles and the Raptors' new-found defensive diligence. He didn't want to jinx it.

But the two poor first-quarter starts the Raptors suffered in Orlando may have had an unintentional longer-term benefit.

In both cases, the Raptors had their bigger lineup on the floor when the Magic got out to its quick starts. In Game 1, it resulted in open threes. In Game 2, they were able to get so many layups and dunks the threes weren't necessary.

But once trailing, Raptors head coach Sam Mitchell was forced to go to a smaller, quicker lineup, a strategy he started the game with in Game 3. The risk was giving up size and rebounding, but the payoff came in having players on the floor who can quickly block penetration, help in the post and still recover to challenge shots.

"We're just trying to be more aggressive and be more trapping. And I think as a result we're a lot more aggressive to get to the three-point line and make them shoot tougher shots," Parker said.

The tactic has worked. Rashard Lewis — a 40.9-per-cent three-point shooter during the season — is just 6-for-26 in the first three games. Hedo Turkoglu is 1-for-9. Maurice Evans hit four three-pointers in the first quarter of Game 1 and has made just one since.

"When you get a rhythm as a shooter, you hit a couple, you start feeling good and it doesn't matter who's running at you," Parker said. "If you can stop guys from getting that rhythm and getting that confidence, it makes a difference. Then when something does break down and they get an open shot, maybe you get a couple of misses."

On Thursday, the Raptors knew they would have to be ready to double-team Dwight Howard or Turkoglu in the post and stepped on the floor with their shoes tied up tight.

"The Golden Rule is you live by the three, you die by three," Raptors point guard T.J. Ford said. "We've experienced that this year … you just try to make it tough for people. [Going small] helped last night. It helped us get off to a fast start."

Ford and fellow point guard Jose Calderon did a better job pressuring the Magic ball-handlers as well, keeping the likes of Jameer Nelson — who is expected to play today despite back spasms — out of the paint and making it harder for him to find open shooters because the Raptors didn't have to collapse to help.

The Raptors have had the opposite experience — or at least Jason Kapono has. After a dormant second half of the season — Kapono hit just seven three-pointers after the all-star break — the three-point specialist has lit up the Magic, drilling 11 of 18 attempts.

He leads all NBA players in the postseason in three-pointers made, and the Raptors have made the most threes of any team in the postseason. As a group, the Raptors are connecting on 38.6 per cent of their threes, close to their NBA-best 39-per-cent mark during the regular season.

The Raptors may be trailing the Magic in the series, but they're leading in three-point shooting, making more while forcing their opponent to make less. It's a formula that bodes well.

"I think we have to win that battle," Raptors forward Chris Bosh said. "They're a great three-point shooting team. They can really shoot the ball. But when they're contested and they're missing them, that's taking them out of their comfort zone and they have to find something else to do. And then you're asking someone else besides Dwight [Howard] and Hedo [Turkoglu] to make plays inside the three-point line."

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