TORONTO — 1. Chris Bosh v. Dwight Howard
This is actually a bit misleading, as Bosh and Howard won't cover each other very much, at least to start games. Toronto Raptors veteran Rasho Nesterovic will be required to cover Howard and the Orlando Magic centre will get the nod on the big Slovenian. And don't be surprised if the Raptors trot out the likes of Kris Humphries or Primoz Brezec to use up some fouls on Howard and save some of Nesterovic's.
The convenient assumption is the series's two all-star bigs will cancel each other out, statistically. Howard averaged 24 points and 12.7 rebounds against the Raptors; Bosh averaged 33 points and 7.5 rebounds against the Magic. But there is one key area where the Raptors might have an advantage.
Howard is a poor free-throw shooter, connecting on just 59 per cent of his attempts. Bosh is an excellent free-throw shooter, good on 84.4 per cent of his attempts. That means down the stretch, if the Raptors go to Bosh, they can be sure he'll get them something on the line at least; Howard not as much.
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2. Which three-point shooting team will show up?
The Magic and Raptors are two of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA. The Raptors shot 39.2 per cent, second to the Phoenix Suns. The Magic shot 38.6 per cent. But the percentages mask some significant differences.
The first is the Magic led the NBA in three-pointers made, averaging 9.8 a game, while Toronto averaged seven triples a night. The other factor worth noting is the Raptors' three-point shooting is in free fall, from a high of 44.6 per cent in January to 30.7 per cent in April. The Magic are on a roll, averaging 39.1 per cent in April, after 42.5 and 42.3 in February and March.
And one other thought: Orlando defends the three-point line slightly better than the Raptors, allowing opponents to connect on 35.8 per cent of their attempts, compared with 36.8 per cent the Raptors allow. The Raptors will have to shoot threes better than they have recently and defend them better than they have all year.
3. The "G" is silent
Howard makes the Magic known, and small forward Hedo Turkoglu makes them worth knowing.
Only four players in the NBA averaged at least 19 points, five rebounds and five assists a game this season. Turkoglu was one, and Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Vince Carter were the others.
And while those three easily qualify as the kind of big, slashing wings that give the Raptors fits, 6-foot-10 Turkoglu might not. But his line against the Raptors in three starts suggests otherwise: 21.3 rebound points, 8.7 assists and 7.7 assists.
Needless to say, if that trend continues, the Raptors will be pressed hard. But Turkoglu's first big game came when Jamario Moon and Nesterovic — arguably two of the Raptors' best defenders — weren't part of the rotation, and his last big one came when Bosh was out and the Raptors were starting their midseason swoon.
But in the Raptors' win against Orlando at the Air Canada Centre, Turkoglu shot just 4-for-16 from the field and got a full dose of Moon in one of his best games of Moon's surprising rookie season. The question will be whether slightly built Moon can use his length and athleticism to offset Turkoglu's (relative) bulk.
4. Whom will Bosh cover, and whom will cover Bosh?
As mentioned above, it's not a lock that Bosh and Howard will spend long stretches of the game going head to head. So whom will Bosh cover?
Not Turkoglu — his dribble-drive game would turn Bosh inside out. The likely candidate is Rashard Lewis, the 6-foot-10, yet undersized, power forward.
This will be a challenge for Bosh, who simply hasn't played enough defence out to the three-point line to be very good at it. If he's not up to the task or if he picks up some early fouls reaching, it could mean the Raptors would have to go to a smaller lineup, with Bosh playing centre against Howard more.
Lewis is a good three-point shooter who averaged 18.2 points on 45.5-per-cent shooting and a career-best 40.9 per cent from beyond the arc. He shot 553 three-pointers, a career best, and only 260 free throws, his fewest in six seasons. In other words, he spends a lot of time on the perimeter.
If Bosh can neutralize him — if that is the matchup — it should pay dividends, as Lewis would likely be overmatched trying to contain Bosh in the post. In that scenario, look for Turkoglu to leave Moon and double-team Bosh, putting pressure on Bosh as a passer and Moon as a shotmaker.
5. Crunch time
On paper, the Magic should be heavy favourites in this series. Orlando has the better record (52 wins) and won the season series. But if you were shopping for an upset, you might find it here.
The Magic's record is bolstered by the fact that its top three players — Howard, Turkoglu and Lewis — missed a total of only one game among them. Conversely, the Raptors were without Bosh for 15 games and without him at his best for many more, as he struggled mightily in the early part of the season after missing most of training camp with a knee problem and then again after missing 10 games in March.
Raptors point guard T.J. Ford missed 31 games this season, but has looked smart in April, shooting 54 per cent and averaging 7.5 assists against 1.9 turnovers. Along with Jose Calderon, who has made one turnover in April, while averaging 8.3 assists a game, the Raptors should enjoy a significant advantage over the Magic's solid, if unspectacular, point-guard tandem.
Is it fair to say the Raptors might have been good for 50 wins if they had got a combined 243 games from Ford, Bosh and Jorge Garbajosa? Would the Magic be a 52-win team without a largely injury-free season?
It doesn't seem unfair. Which is why it would not be far-fetched to see the Raptors push the Magic deep into this series — and out of the first round.
