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Toronto — A year ago, Bryan Colangelo, the president and general manager of the Toronto Raptors, paused by the white board in the hallway outside the dressing room and looked at the Eastern Conference standings posted there.
In those giddy days, with the Raptors putting the finishing touches on a 47-win NBA season and an Atlantic Division banner, it was easy to make the case that the team he'd put together had a clear path to the top of the conference, needing only health, experience and a few complementary pieces.
Chatting casually, there was a case to be made that the Detroit Pistons were still the class of the East but could easily be painted as an aging team fighting against the dying light, or at least a closing window of opportunity.
The Boston Celtics? Lost in the NBA wilderness, joined there by the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks. There were several teams in NBA purgatory, neither very bad nor very good, while the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats and Orlando Magic were young, struggling teams with talent and a chance to improve.
At that point, two teams looked to be long-term obstacles to any designs the Raptors had on Eastern Conference domination: the Cleveland Cavaliers, due to the overwhelming talents of LeBron James; and the Chicago Bulls, who lacked a single player of James's talents but were stocked with young, good, tough-minded players on their way to a third consecutive postseason appearance. The Bulls swept the defending champion Miami Heat in the first round before falling to the Pistons in round two.
Last night, the Raptors finished their second complete regular season under Colangelo, in Chicago against the Bulls. Although the game was meaningless — the Raptors will start the playoffs against Orlando on Sunday regardless of the outcome — it demonstrated the uncertainty of predictions in the NBA.
The Bulls, picked by many to be a likely finalist in the Eastern Conference, are the NBA's most disappointing team. Their playoff hopes were dashed weeks ago; head coach Scott Skiles was fired in December; Ben Wallace, their premier free agent from a couple of years ago, was traded; and their season has been awash in contract problems, chemistry problems and identity problems.
Darrick Martin, the Raptors' point guard who was waived last month but remains with the club as a wise old head, explained the mood around the team this way the other day: "It's a long season. If you reach your goal and you make the playoffs, you see that light at the end of the tunnel and you get rejuvenated."
And the Raptors should enjoy their time in the spotlight. In drawing Orlando, they have an opponent they think they can beat, and with good reason.
But whatever happens when the second season starts, the Bulls' regular season is a lesson in how fleeting potential can be.
The reality is there's no guarantee a similar fate couldn't befall the Raptors. The white board has been turned nearly upside down in 12 short months. Those lost-in-the-wilderness Celtics are the class of the NBA; the 76ers are where the Raptors were last season — young, hungry and authors of a spectacular second-half finish. Control of the Knicks has been wrested from the hands of Isiah Thomas, which means they may finally return to respectability. The Pistons' deep, young bench promises to make them a factor for the foreseeable future.
The Magic gambled in the off-season and spent $118-million (all currency U.S.) on free agent Rashard Lewis. They were rewarded with more than 50 wins.
Be it injuries, chemistry, the underachieving Andrea Bargnani or the overpaid Jason Kapono, the Raptors moved sideways this season, falling short of all their preseason goals other than actually qualifying for the playoffs.
While Colangelo's major moves have been lacking in some respects this season — Bargnani's stalled development as a No.1 overall draft pick and the four-year, $24-million contract awarded Kapono — he's shrewdly avoided hamstringing the future with contracts that clog the salary cap. As a result, this summer and likely next season will provide some opportunities to reload.
Good thing, too. Life in the Eastern Conference promises only to be more unpredictable.
Knocking off the Magic and making their first appearance in the second playoff round since Vince Carter accepted his diploma at the University of North Carolina would go a long way toward making this season a success for Colangelo and the Raptors.
But even that wouldn't make their position on the white board any more certain.
The Bulls are proof of that.
