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The fade

Good morning, how does it feel to be in seventh place?

That's where the Toronto Raptors find themselves, as they continue to fade and the Wizards and 76ers continue to grind.

There has been a sense of complacency around this team for much of the season. Some of it was early season optimism. For the record I still think that this group, operating at close to optimum efficiency, was good for 50 wins this season.

But even as injuries and other issues have made that mark unattainable there was a sense that the Raptors would comfortably make the playoffs and make some noise in the first round, depending on their match-up.

The fifth seed seemed their worst case.

It still might happen, but are the Raptors justified in expecting anything better than the seventh seed and a first-round match-up with the Detroit Pistons?

Consider Washington, who is now a game-and-a-half ahead of Toronto and in the fifth spot. They've held their own without Gilbert Arenas all season and while missing Caron Butler for 16 games.

While the return of Arenas is still up in the air, Butler is back and rounding into form. Consider this detail from Ivan Carter's story in the Washington Post:

“Sunday's victory improved the team to 20-12 with a starting lineup of Jamison, Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, Antonio Daniels and Brendan Haywood.

"It is [the best the team has played] because that was when we had Caron was healthy, we had our forwards on the floor, we had good, balanced scoring, we had good rebounding with Antawn and Caron and good assist-making with our guards," Jordan said. "So yeah, that's where we are right now. We've got that toughness that we missed from Caron. We missed him dearly. It's good to have him back. It took a couple of games for him to get his feet underneath him but he's getting there and we like to have that unit out there on the floor."

A 20-12 pace record translates into 50 wins, by the way.

And Philadelphia who are a half-game up on the Raptors?

All they did was go on a 19-0 run fourth quarter run to beat Boston in Boston last night. And while it might be easy to dismiss the 76ers as a team that's playing well without the weight of expectations, they are 10-2 in March. Seven of those 12 games were on the road, and it's not like it's been all cream puffs, as Philly has knocked off Phoenix, Detroit, San Antonio, Denver and Boston.

A quote from last night in the Philadelphia Inquirer:

"[The Sixers] just play hard,'' Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. "They don't do any tricks or anything like that. They just are aggressive, athletic; they play hard, and if you let them hang around they'll beat you because they are a team, a young team. When it gets close, they start seeing the finish line, and then you have to deal with that energy and that athleticism. And we didn't do a very good job of that.''

Now sure, Washington starts a five-game Western road trip tonight. And Philly has Boston again and Cleveland twice coming up. It makes sense to think they're due to come to earth and the Raptors will finally hit their stride.

But increasingly the Raptors might be looking at the seventh seed strictly on merit.

  1. D M from king City, Canada writes: With Both Jersey and Atlanta 5 wins behind the Raps, maybe we can actually finish 9th and be in the lottery while the Leafs squeaks in. As we don't really have any financial flexibility next season, this can be the best scenario for the Pension people financially; and the Raps long-term. Go Hawks and Nets!
  2. daniel dale from Canada writes: I predict a Raptors bounce-back. Not that they beat every team they should beat, but their April schedule is filled with worse teams: Atlanta, Charlotte, New Jersey, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Miami, and Chicago. Only Detroit is a should-lose. And of their remaining March games, they have two should-loses and two should-wins. That's nine should-win, three should-lose.

    Philly, conversely, has Phoenix, Cleveland twice, Detroit, and Washington. Atlanta twice, too. Of those six games, can't see them going better than 2-and-4.
  3. D M from king City, Canada writes: Daniel, I hope you're correct.
  4. Khan dor from Canada writes:

    daniel,

    The way the 76ers are playing right now ... IMO ... a realistic Raptors' fan would be re-miss to 'expect' anything more than 3 losses from Philadelphia in the 11 games they have left (6 of which are at home).

    Expected L's?

    @ Cle (Mar 30)
    @ Was (Apr 12)

    The 76ers will probably end up as betting 'favourites' for each of their other 9 games.
  5. Khan dor from Canada writes: BTW ... when healthy, the Wizards' organization is flat out better than the Raptors:

    Grunfeld v Colangelo

    Jordan v Mitchell

    Daniels v Calderon
    Stevenson v Parker
    Butler v Moon
    Jamison v Bosh
    Haywood v Bargnani
    ------------------
    Arenas v Ford
    Young v Kapono
    Blatche v Delfino
    Songaila v Humphries
    Pecherov v Nesterovic
    ------------------
    Mason, Jr. v Martin
    McGuire v Baston
    Thomas v Brezec
  6. Guy MacPherson from Canada writes: Remember the last time the Raptors had a winnable schedule? Didn't work out so well, did it? Unfortunately, the mighty Raps tend to look at their opponents with the same level of respect, i.e. not much, and play accordingly. They tend to only turn it on against good teams, and then it's still not enough.
  7. daniel dale from Canada writes: Guy: I agree, but it's different now - different when you're staring at a Detroit sweep than when you feel like you're stuck forever in fourth or fifth place no matter what you do, as the Raps probably did for the last couple months. Not saying I have total confidence in them to beat those remaining "weak" teams, but the odds are in their favour.

    Khan: I hear ya, but I'd be quite surprised if they went 8-and-3 the rest of the way with that schedule.

    But we will see!

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