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Two weeks to go in the NHL regular season; this is when cold reality can suddenly creep into playoff hopes and dreams - unless you're too young and are playing with too much joie de vivre to even think about projected point totals and the laws of probability.
Naturally, that brings us to the Edmonton Oilers who — if nothing else — are certainly the most fun team to watch these days. For weeks now, the Oilers have been playing virtually pressure-free, trying to convince themselves that they were actually in the playoff race and that the statistical gap — seven points as a mid-March — was something they could theoretically overcome. In the next 24 hours, what may have been a pipedream could actually morph into a reality; much depends upon how Monday night's action unfolds; and if their charmed life can continue for another day.
Conceivably, the Oilers could move to within a point of eighth place in the Western Conference standings if they defeat the Minnesota Wild at home and the Calgary Flames help them out by knocking off the slumping Colorado Avalanche on the road. If that happens (and depending upon what the Nashville Predators do against the Columbus Blue Jackets), then the Oilers would be within a point of the Avalanche and get another crack at them later this week in Colorado.
The sad reality of most of these intriguing 11th-hour playoff runs is that teams tend to get oh-so-close to that final berth, but then just cannot get over the hump. The Oilers need to overcome some history in this home-and-home with the Wild if they want to stay in the race. Minnesota is 17-5-1 in their past 23 regular-season decisions against Edmonton; the former Wild goaltender, Dwayne Roloson, tends to struggle against his ex-mates (4-9-2), while Nicklas Backstrom is a perfect 8-0 career-wise against the Oilers.
Still … the Oilers are on a nice 11-3 roll; they are getting goals galore from their trio of youngsters (Sam Gagner, Robert Nilsson and Andrew Cogliano); and what does history mean to them anyway?
In some ways, the Oilers' chances were enhanced as the Western Conference playoff race turned into a turtle derby of sorts. Oddly enough, the weight of expectation seems to have caused two of the more experienced teams (the Dallas Stars and the Avalanche to falter). Isn't it supposed to be the other way around?
But the Stars look fragile on so many levels; and they've had difficulty integrating the trading-deadline acquisition, Brad Richards from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Richards had five points in his first game with the Stars and then four in his next seven. Overall, Dallas is 1-7 in their last eight and the bottom may have come on Saturday afternoon, when they held a 2-1 lead over the Los Angeles Kings, at home, a perfect opportunity to stop the bleeding — and proceeded to blow it, surrendering three goals in the final three minutes and ending up with another regulation loss.
Three weeks ago (Mar. 3 — you can look it up), the Stars held a six-point lead over the Anaheim Ducks atop the Pacific Division, which was setting them up nicely for the second seed in the Western Conference and a comparatively easy playoff path. The San Jose Sharks were a point behind the Ducks, third in the division, fifth in the conference. But the Sharks have been the hottest team in the NHL for more than a month (29 out of a possible 30 points) and in that 21-day span, turned a seven-point deficit into a 10-point lead over the Stars.
They're essentially running away with the Pacific; about the only good news for Dallas is that they might not even hang on to fifth place in the conference, the way they're going now. If they drop further, it could be a blessing in disguise — and maybe a chance to play Minnesota in the opening round, a far preferable opponent.
The Wild have not won in their last eight trips to Dallas; of course, L.A. hadn't won in their last seven before pulling out the miracle victory. (Miracle too strong a word? Well, consider that the offensive catalyst for the comeback was the Kings' Michal Handzus, who scored twice — after going 42 games in a row without a goal). Brendan Morrow, the Stars' captain, has had a dry scoring month (only four points in March); and Niklas Hagman, who is in the midst of a breakout 25-goal season, was playing fourth-line minutes over the weekend.
As for Richards, whose biggest issue in Tampa was settling on wingers who complement him, he was playing on a line with Loui Eriksson and Joel Lundqvist the other day. The only possible reason for optimism in Dallas: Defenceman Sergei Zubov, who has been out for close to 30 games now with a right foot injury, could be back sometime this week. Zubov was a Norris Trophy candidate before he got injured.
As much as the Oilers need to keep winning, they also need the Avalanche to continue losing. It is four losses in a row and counting now for Colorado, another team having difficulty setting its line-up, what with prized acquisitions Peter Forsberg and Adam Foote in and out, with groin and foot problems respectively.
Forsberg is supposed to play against Calgary and if he does, it'll be on the third line with Tyler Arnason and rookie David Jones. That actually might be a good place for Forsberg to start, given that he's played all of four games so far this season and has just two assists to show for it. With all hands on deck, the Avalanche's personnel and experience would lead you to think they're a dark-horse playoff contender (and wouldn't Detroit be mildly concerned about facing their old nemesis in the first round?). The problem, for Colorado, is they need to get their first — and if they don't, it could be they've lost their place to the Oilers. Two weeks to go in the NHL season; spring is in the air in Edmonton; and if you're the Oilers, you're thinking: Cold reality is something that they can experience in other parts of the country, not in sunny Alberta.
