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The Answerman returns to ponder the aftermath of another wild and crazy NHL trading deadline day …
Q: OK, the dust has settled, Pierre McGuire's voice has dropped down an octave, and the Ottawa Senators still have a goaltending crisis. What exactly was accomplished at the deadline yesterday?
A: For the Canadian teams, very little. The two in Alberta stood pat. The other four all had aggressive game plans that failed to come to fruition — Montreal, Ottawa and Vancouver unable to add a big-time forward that they needed to supplement their respective offences and Toronto unable to dump a big-time forward (or defenceman), mostly for contract reasons. Overall, it hasn't been a great year thus far for Canada's six NHL entries, with the possible exception of Montreal - and nothing that happened Tuesday did much to enhance their Stanley Cup chances.
Q: Generally you don't talk in terms of winners and losers at the deadline correct? Why is that?
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A: Because it can change in a hurry from month to month and year to year — and unless your crystal ball is more foolproof than mine, yesterday's winner could develop a strong sense of buyer's remorse by June. Consider that last year, the San Jose Sharks made what looked like two fairly astute moves, adding a former Stanley Cup winner in the midst of a 36-goal season (Bill Guerin) up front plus a useful veteran (Craig Rivet) on the blue line. But Guerin failed to score in nine playoff games for the Sharks and Rivet, while a useful pickup, was on the ice for the pivotal moment when Detroit turned around their second-round series against San Jose. The Sharks were declared "winners" on the day they made the deal; in effect the cost of two first-rounders (one of which turned out to be David Perron, who is already in the NHL as a teenager) proved quite prohibitive in hindsight.
Q: Does that mean you don't endorse the Brian Campbell deal?
A: Not at all. It makes perfect sense in terms of filling the Sharks' need for a puck-moving defenceman and someone who can quarterback the power play from the back end. But if the Sharks bow out in the opening round and Campbell decides the West Coast lifestyle isn't for him, then a 2008 first rounder is going to be a heavy price to pay for a team that thought it could win a playoff round or three and failed to do so.
Q: But isn't that a problem throughout the Western Conference, which boasts the defending champions (Anaheim), the two teams with the best overall records (Detroit, Dallas), the always intriguing Sharks, the improving Colorado Avalanche, plus a couple of teams whose strength in goal (Calgary, Vancouver) make them dark-horse contenders as well?
A: Exactly my point. Only one of that group will qualify for the Stanley Cup final and if it happens to be one of the outsiders (which occurred in two of the last three playoff years), then someone will have mortgaged an important piece of their future for not-much-help in the present.
Q: GMs always talk about the risk-reward ratio in making a trading-deadline deal? Did any of them nail it just right?
A: There were 25 trades involving 45 players and the one I liked the best was hardly discussed by any of the networks or bloggers — Detroit's acquisition of Brad Stuart from the Los Angeles Kings for a second- and fourth-round pick.
Q: Really? Why that one?
A: Because Detroit's recent struggles notwithstanding, they are the best team in the league. The Red Wings aren't winning now because four of their top defencemen are all injured. Can you imagine how many organizations would stay competitive, with that amount of defensive talent on the sidelines? Maybe only Vancouver. The Red Wings essentially ran out of players in last year's semi-finals against the Ducks; the injuries to Mathieu Schneider and Niklas Kronwall were both critical; and even at that, it took a lucky goal by Scott Niedermayer to turn the series around.
The lesson — of that playoff and this year's run of injuries — was not lost on Red Wings' general manager Ken Holland, who saw Stuart play pretty well for the Flames in last year's opening-round loss to Detroit. After a so-so first 10 games on behalf of Calgary, Stuart might have been their best defenceman in that lopsided playoff loss. And this year, Stuart also struggled in the first quarter of the season for the Kings, but has been much better ever since.
Holland called Stuart a strong No. 4 — and he'll definitely be that. Provided they get everybody (or almost everybody) healthy prior to the start of the playoffs, the Red Wings should be eight deep on the blue line — enough depth to play four rounds, unless they get extremely unlucky again. And the fact that they didn't give up a first-rounder to make the deal is key. In a 30-team NHL, the value of draft picks drops off considerably after the first round, even in what scouts view as a fairly deep draft.
Q: So you're picking Detroit to win it all?
A: Even as a No. 1 seed, they'll be forced to navigate down a long and complicated playoff path, same as everybody in the West. One of these days, the NHL will get around to realigning itself and Detroit may finally land in the East, where they belong geographically. If that were the case today, they'd be head and shoulders above everyone else and close to a mortal lock. But the East's mediocrity and the West's depth create the sort of drama that the salary-capped NHL desperately wants, setting the stage for another who-knows-what-might-happen playoff season. To echo an old saying: Careful what you wish for, just in case you get it.
