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On June 22, 2007 the Calgary Flames announced a trade for veteran defenseman Adrian Aucoin:
"Calgary, AB - Calgary Flames General Manager Darryl Sutter announced today the acquisition of defenseman Adrian Aucoin and a 7th round pick in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for defensemen Andrei Zyuzin and Steve Marr.
A native of Ottawa, ON, and a veteran of almost 700 NHL games, Aucoin is entering his 11th NHL season. As the Chicago Blackhawks captain last season, he played in 59 games, registering four goals and 12 assists for 16 points and 50 penalty minutes."
Upon completion of the trade the Flames assumed the remaining two years of Aucoin's $4-million (U.S.) per year contract. Calgary did not accept this contract for his offense and he was not acquired to take penalties. Adrian Aucoin was clearly acquired for his defensive contribution.
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Yet we are told nothing in the press release about his defensive contributions. Why is this? The answer is quite simple. The NHL's fact book contains not an ounce of defensive data. Not even a milligram.
How does one measure defensive performance?
Some might feel that the plus/minus statistic is the answer (Aucoin was -22 last season with the then-bumbling Blackhawks). But the main problem with plus/minus is all those pluses. They have nothing to do with defence. Another shortcoming of the plus/minus stat is the omission of short-handed minuses.
If only the NHL would give us the raw material of the plus/minus stat. Tell us the pluses and minuses separately, separately for even-handed, short-handed and power-play situations. With that information we could begin to assess the defensive play of individuals.
What the NHL does give us is a play-by-play record of each on-ice event. These reports tell us who was on the ice for each goal. If you are patient enough, an analysis of these records give you the "minus" information and situation for each goal scored.
With these minuses in one hand and time-on-ice data in the other hand, one can calculate goals-against averages for individual players. The math is the same as for goaltenders — GAA = 60 x Goals Against (minuses) / Time on Ice.
Two caveats:
First of all, as is the case for goaltender GAAs, there is an awful lot of team in the individual data. In particular there is a fair bit of goaltending in the GAAs of skaters. For this reason it is best to use GAAs only to compare skaters on the same team.
Secondly, as GAAs are much higher while short-handed, it only makes sense to look at GAAs by situation. If we don't do that, players with a lot of time on the power play will look like defensive gems and those killing penalties will look like defensive bums.
Respecting these caveats, below are the best and worst GAAs for each of the six Canadian NHL teams for even-handed (EHGAA) and short-handed situations (SHGAA) through January 31 (note that I have applied some minimum ice-time thresholds to filter out statistically insignificant performances).
|
Calgary |
Player |
EHGAA |
Player |
SHGAA | |
|
Best |
Yelle |
1.52 |
Sarich |
5.08 | |
|
Hale |
1.56 |
Eriksson |
6.49 | ||
|
Aucoin |
1.69 |
Conroy |
6.58 | ||
|
Nolan |
1.78 |
||||
|
Worst |
Iginla |
2.56 |
|||
|
Langkow |
2.63 |
Lombardi |
7.86 | ||
|
Phaneuf |
2.68 |
Phaneuf |
8.17 | ||
|
Eriksson |
3.07 |
Aucoin |
9.16 |
This data says that Adrian Aucoin is earning his large paycheque after all, averaging about one goal less per even-handed game than Dion Phaneuf who has just inked a $39-million contract extension. It also demonstrates something that I discovered a few years ago. There is nearly no correlation between even-handed and short-handed defence (see Aucoin and Anders Eriksson).
|
Edmonton |
Player |
EHGAA |
Player |
SHGAA | |
|
Best |
Nilsson |
2.19 |
Brodziak |
4.33 | |
|
Souray |
2.30 |
Gilbert |
4.41 | ||
|
Pisani |
2.36 |
Souray |
4.62 | ||
|
Torres |
2.38 |
||||
|
Worst |
Tarnstrom |
3.22 |
|||
|
Gagner |
3.28 |
Reasoner |
5.52 | ||
|
Reasoner |
3.57 |
Horcoff |
5.68 | ||
|
Brodziak |
3.62 |
Smid |
6.01 |
When compared to Calgary's data, the Oilers' even-handed GAAs reflect a goaltending gap. This is why cross-team comparisons are tricky. Nevertheless this analysis tells us that Sheldon Souray seems to have moved his defensive game from liability to asset. Edmonton's data also shows a very solid penalty killing effort (a smaller gap between even-handed and short-handed GAAs).
|
Montreal |
Player |
EHGAA |
Player |
SHGAA | |
|
Best |
Brisebois |
1.90 |
Bouillon |
5.02 | |
|
Bouillon |
1.93 |
Markov |
6.76 | ||
|
Kovalev |
1.98 |
Kostopoulos |
6.85 | ||
|
Higgins |
1.98 |
||||
|
Worst |
Streit |
2.68 |
|||
|
Smolinski |
2.76 |
||||
|
Latendresse |
2.82 |
Komisarek |
7.55 | ||
|
Dandenault |
3.20 |
Hamrlik |
7.94 |
Alexei Kovalev leads the Canadiens in scoring but has very solid defensive numbers for a sniper. Andrei Markov's paycheque is nearly twice the combined cost of Francis Bouillon and Patrice Brisebois. While he also gets paid for his offense, Markov has an unimpressive 2.64 EHGAA.
|
Ottawa |
Player |
EHGAA |
Player |
SHGAA | |
|
Best |
Donovan |
2.01 |
Vemette |
4.38 | |
|
Corvo |
2.22 |
Kelly |
4.86 | ||
|
Schubert |
2.22 |
Alfredsson |
5.88 | ||
|
Richardson |
2.28 |
||||
|
Worst |
Spezza |
3.10 |
|||
|
Alfredsson |
3.21 |
Redden |
6.83 | ||
|
Fisher |
3.30 |
Meszaros |
7.31 | ||
|
Redden |
3.30 |
Fisher |
8.92 |
This analysis demonstrates that, in the final year of his $6.5-million per season contract, Wade Redden continues to struggle with his game. Ottawa's numbers also reveal a common scenario with top guns. The even-handed defence of both Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson is lacking (note that Jarome Iginla is shown to be in the same club).
|
Toronto |
Player |
EHGAA |
Player |
SHGAA | |
|
Best |
Tucker |
2.43 |
Steen |
4.09 | |
|
Wellwood |
2.43 |
Devereaux |
4.89 | ||
|
Kaberle |
2.49 |
Stajan |
5.91 | ||
|
Blake |
2.54 |
||||
|
Worst |
Kilger |
2.89 |
|||
|
McCabe |
2.95 |
Gill |
7.29 | ||
|
White |
2.97 |
Kubina |
7.54 | ||
|
Steen |
3.06 |
Wozniewski |
9.54 |
A very tight spread between the best and worst Toronto EHGAAs suggests that the Leafs are a uniformly poor defensive team. Alex Steen, who a year ago was one of Toronto's top defensive forwards while even-handed, is struggling with even-handed defence yet continues to shine in short-handed situations. Andy Wozniewski has no business being on the penalty kill.
|
Vancouver |
Player |
EHGAA |
Player |
SHGAA | |
|
Best |
Salo |
1.14 |
Ohlund |
4.18 | |
|
Edler |
1.37 |
Burrows |
5.91 | ||
|
Isbister |
1.41 |
Cooke |
6.33 | ||
|
D. Sedin |
1.49 |
||||
|
Worst |
Morrison |
2.51 |
|||
|
Ritchie |
2.51 |
Mitchell |
7.10 | ||
|
Naslund |
2.51 |
Salo |
7.52 | ||
|
Krajicek |
2.92 |
Kesler |
9.10 |
Defenceman Lukas Krajicek averages about 14 minutes of even-handed ice time per game. This means that he is on the ice for about 0.4 more even-handed goals per game than is Sami Salo. And here is why plus/minus is not very helpful in assessing defence. Salo has a very, very impressive EHGAA (in front of possibly the best goaltender on the planet) and a plus/minus of +6. Defenceman Alexander Edler has a plus/minus of +14 with an inferior EHGAA. The difference is all those pluses.
There are other and better ways of looking at individual defence. But goals-against averages are dead simple and easy to understand. And they are a huge improvement over what the NHL gives us to work with in assessing defence — which is. . . nothing.
