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One of the fun things about doing this blog has been hearing directly -- via email (mgrange@globeandmail.com) and the comments section from some very knowledgeable hoops fans. Some of (most) are eager to wade in with their own observations and most of those are pretty worthy. One of the earlist and most consistent in this regard has been emailer Chris, who comes hard with the facts and is pretty good with the context too. Like Kelly Dwyer, he listens to music I have never heard before.
Turns out Chris has his own Raptors blog and it's a good one. And, even better it turns out, he works for free, which is lucky, as while I'm en route to another Boston beatdown, Chris is going to make a rare From Deep guest blog. He'll be followed up later by my man Dan Dale, who will bring all the haters up to date on the fate of the From Deep Fantasy All-Stars.
For now a warm From Deep welcome for Chris:
Pace Factor is an estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a basketball team. It is essentially a measure of the team's "speed of play."
When Sam Mitchell was put in place as Raptors head coach, a new era of offensive basketball was promised. And when former Suns general manager Bryan Colangelo came on board, and promptly traded for lightning-fast point guard T.J. Ford, even more was promised. The Suns of the East … we all couldn’t wait.
To this day, I sometimes hear visiting broadcasters refer to the Raptors in that light, as “Phoenix East” or something to that effect. Even the majority of the fans believe that they are watching an up-tempo team in action.
But, to steal an overused cliché, numbers never lie. In this particular case, and for this particular post, we’re only interested in one key number: pace factor. Without getting lost in the computation of the statistic, it is what was said at the beginning of this post, a measure of a team’s “speed of play.”
Under the guidance of Sam Mitchell (and Bryan Colangelo), the Raptors have never been one of the 10 fastest teams in the league, and of special note is what’s happening this season.
TORONTO RAPTORS FRANCHISE
SEASON PACE RANK W-L
’95-’96 95.9 7th 21-61
’96-’97 93.3 14th 30-52
’97-’98 95.4 4th 16-66
’98-’99 91.7 13th 23-27
’99-’00 95.2 19th 45-37
’00-’01 93.8 18th 47-35
’01-’02 91.6 25th 42-40
’02-’03 92.4 21st 24-58
’03-’04 89.1 28th 33-49
’04-’05 95.0 11th 33-49
’05-’06 93.5 15th 27-55
’06-’07 94.7 11th 47-35
’07-’08 91.8 27th 22-19
NOTE: This is shaping up to be the second “slowest” team (relative to the rest of the NBA) in franchise history. Not since the dark days (for fans of offensive basketball) of Kevin O’Neill have the Raptors ranked lower in pace of play. But, when you look at the franchise history, another thing becomes quite clear, something I’ll touch on after you take a look at this table:
2007-2008 PACE FACTOR
22. WASHINGTON 93.1
23. BOSTON 92.6
24. DALLAS 92.5
25. ATLANTA 92.4
26. NEW ORLEANS 92.2
27. TORONTO 91.8
28. SAN ANTONIO 91.0
29. PORTLAND 91.0
30. DETROIT 91.0
Those are the bottom 9 teams in the league when it comes to pace of play … and they’re a combined 100 games above .500 this season. But don’t read too much into that. The Suns, Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets, Magic and Pacers (all currently playoff teams) are all in the top 10 of pace factor this season.
So, what became quite clear looking at the franchise history of the Raptors and at this year’s rankings of pace factor was this: it isn’t a stat that is a very good predictor of wins and losses. However, what it does tell you is what style a team likes to play, and if you can get them out of that style—that comfort zone—then you probably have a better chance at winning.
But here’s the question of the day: Are the Raptors truly a “slow it down” team this season? The answer lies at the point.
I took a look at the numbers of all 41 games played by the Raptors this season to track their pace of play, whether there was an underlying trend, etc… and the numbers backed up what I had thought beforehand (but maybe not so drastically):
When T.J. Ford is running the point, Toronto plays at an above-average pace, when Jose Calderon is getting the majority of the playing time, the Raptors play at the slowest pace in the entire NBA.
Unfortunately, I can’t break pace factor down possession by possession, but here are the two numbers to remember: 94.6 and 90.2.
When T.J. Ford plays more than half of a game for the Raptors (24+ minutes), the Raptors pace factor is 94.6, which would put them 13th in the NBA. When T.J. has been injured, or has played less than half of a game for the Raptors, their pace factor is 90.2, which would tie them with Detroit for the slowest pace in the league.
I think these numbers pass the “laugh test,” which means they “sort of make sense.” When T.J. is in the game, he can break his man down off the dribble early in the shot clock, and (as his critics often point out), he takes jumpers early in the shot clock every so often as well. Conversely, Jose Calderon is more prone to working the offence deep into the shot clock, waiting until the best shot is possible before ending a possession, so to speak.
But I think one other element is at play here that might be going unnoticed. I think both T.J. and Jose play at a faster pace when both are healthy. I have no doubt that Jose has slowed the pace of this team since T.J’s injury. You simply don’t see that typical Calderon finish off the initial pick and roll very often anymore. I suspect that’s because it’s probably a play that requires a high amount of energy for Calderon to perform it successfully, and, well… he hasn’t had a lot of energy to spare lately.
So are the Raptors a grind it out team or an up-tempo squad? The answer—at least when they have a full, healthy roster—is a bit of both.
This post was written while listening to Cuff the Duke’s Sidelines of the City.
