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The folks over at TSN.ca asked me to participate in a Raptors mid-season roundtable along with some other so-called experts. I will post or link or whatever to the full version when they have it up, but in the meantime here are my answers to their questions about the Raptors after 41 games, with 41 to go.
1. How would you rate the Toronto Raptors' overall performance so far this season? I give them a ‘C’ or maybe a C+ -- if we’re using the Nothing but (Inter)net standard of measuring a team or a player by their performance according to their relative ability. Obviously injuries have been a factor, but they always are. The main ones are T.J. Ford and the way Bosh’s foot kept him out of action for the summer and his knee ruined his training camp. Bosh is a lot of special things, but a pure ‘natural’ he’s not. It’s clear that he’s a guy that thrives on routine and fitness and his play in January (59.1 per cent shooting), now that he’s healthy and fit, has shown the standard he’s capable of reaching. But his performance – at least his shooting and overall offensive efficiency -- in November (45.9 per cent from the floor) and December (41.9 per cent) showed that he can’t just turn it on. As for Ford, in some ways his contributions have been overlooked because Calderon has been so great. But Ford – again when healthy, which means you throw out that little stretch after he had his stinger in Dallas – was having a brilliant season. (his PER of 22.1 is second to Bosh’s 24.81 on the Raptors). Keeping in mind he was finally getting back to the top of his game when he got hurt in Atlanta, it’s hard not to look at a number of games on the schedule since and see where he would have been the difference maker. The two that come to mind right away are Saturday’s loss to Philly and the Raptors loss to Detroit earlier this month, when Calderon just seemed a bit tired and struggled turning the corner on traps that Ford would have blown by with ease. Calderon has been great playing 40 minutes a game; I think he’d be better player 30. As for Garbajosa, I think it’s worth pointing out that no one was missing Garbo when Moon was rising or Delfino was playing well or during Humphries’ December to remember. We’ll never know, as the Garbajosa who came to training camp wasn’t the Garbajosa who was with the Raptors before his broken leg last season, but the reality is that he would be in a deep fight for those minutes at power forward and small forward this year. There is no doubt this team misses the tenacity and heart he played with, but that’s no guarantee he would have been getting the minutes he did last season, and how happy would a healthy Garbo be then?
2. Last season, the second unit was a source of strength for this team. Why has the bench been less effective this year? The second unit is still a plus for this team, but two factors have made it less consistent. The main one is that they aren’t playing with a near all-star at point guard. It’s pretty clear that playing with Calderon is good for your game, and now those second unit guys aren’t getting the same quality from the likes of Juan Dixon or Darrick Martin. Jason Kapono needs a point guard to create shots for him, it’s as simple as that. The other factor is that last year the second unit included a steady contribution from Bargnani, instead he’s been a steady non-contributor to the starting unit.
3. How would you rate Andrea Bargnani’s development? Is he where you thought he would be at this point in his career? I don’t think anyone could honestly say they’d see him in a funk this deep. As bad as he was in December after his knee injury – 29.6 per cent shooting and 19 per cent from deep – he’s been worse lately, 20 per cent from the floor and 10 percent (!!) from behind the three-point line in his last five games. And it’s not like he’s making up for it on the glass or defensively. His confidence has clearly been dealt a serious blow – lately he’s been hesitant to even shoot, which is a bad, bad, sign. When someone is playing that poorly and the expectations have been so high, it’s hard not to put everything under the microscope and see a flaw (shouldn’t a No.1 pick routinely be able to finish inside with his left hand? Or have even a remotely decent feel for tracking rebounds and coming up with loose balls?) but the main concern here is how to get him out of his personal hell. He’s shown enough last season and during the early stages of this season to prove that the expectations on him weren’t completely out of whack, and the Raptors are a better team when he’s playing well. The question is whether he can regain his footing while trying to do all the things a starting centre has to do, or maybe the time has come to put him back at power forward on the second unit and let him play to his strengths (such as they are at this stage) and let him rebuild his confidence that way.
4. Do you expect general manager Bryan Colangelo to make a move before the trade deadline? If so, what do you think he will address? I think he will make a move because his team has needs (a reliable third option at point guard, presuming Ford does come back) and perhaps another big to provide the added athleticism; rebounding and shot-blocking that Baston was in theory supposed to offer. As well, he’s got some pieces to do it in the form of some cap-friendly contracts that might be attractive to a team looking to dump: Dixon and Martin come off the books this year; Nesterovic, Graham and Baston all come off the books after next season.
5. Are the Raptors a better team with Calderon starting? What happens when T.J. Ford comes back? I still think the Raptors are a better team when Ford starts – providing it’s the steadier, slower version that was on display for long stretches this season. His speed and ability to create his own shot simply put more pressure on the defence and give the Raptors better option at the end of the shot clock. And while he’s not a flawless defender, when he wants to cut off penetration or lock down an opponent, he does that better than Calderon. His turnover numbers and overall efficiency don’t hold up to Calderon’s, but as a penetrating guard his turnovers are always going to be higher. The beauty of the Raptors formula was that when Ford was at his reckless worst, Mitchell could always just give Jose more run. But at his best Ford has more to offer, though the difference is like choosing between different kinds of chocolate ice cream – no matter what you end up with, it’s pretty damn good. The unanswerable question is when (if?) Ford will be at his best again? The best-case scenario this season is Calderon remains starting and a healthy Ford tears up second units down the stretch in March and April, and the battle of all battles for the starting spot in training camp next season.
6. Any predictions for the second half of the season? How will the Raptors fare? I see more of the same – nudging along above .500 – until Ford comes back and plays at the level he was before he was hurt. The schedule favours them, with a nice chunk of home games coming, but there’s a long west coast trip in March to consider. Barring a trade or Ford’s return the second unit will continue to be relatively spotty; and playing Calderon 40 minutes a night will take a toll, eventually, not to mention vastly increase his chances of injury – and let’s face it, this team, right now anyway, is a sprained ankle (Calderon’s) away from fighting for the No.8 seed. Best case is to finish somewhere between No. 4 and No.6 but reach the playoffs healthy and firing on all cylinders. In that case they have as good a chance of reaching the second round as they did before the season started.
