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I’m not a big one for making predictions, but the Raptors will win tonight and if they’re playing even close to well it should be over in the second quarter. This has nothing to do with the Raptors and everything to do with the 76ers – or at least the 76ers schedule.
Remember before Christmas and Mitchell was complaining about the Raptors schedule? The Raptors were playing their fourth game in five nights in Phoenix after flying from Seattle the night before, having played the SuperSonics. As Doug Smith said at the time, the Raptors lost that one when the schedule came out in July. I’m no bettor, but if I was to get into that racket I bet you could do pretty well just handicapping schedule trends. I’m not suggesting any one reading this has a nasty gambling habit, but is anyone aware of any info out there that breaks down won-loss tendencies based on schedule? Road games vs. home games? Second night of back-to-backs? Second-night of back-to-backs on the road? Fourth game in five, that kind of thing? I'd be curious to know.
The 76ers will lose tonight because they are kind of brutal, as their record (14-21) suggest, a mark bolstered by their standing as the 26th ranked offensive team in the league, according the Mr. Hollinger (though they rank 10th defensively) but more importantly they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, this after returning home Monday after a 10-day, six-game road trip to the West Coast. Overall tonight’s game will be their 10th game in their last 13 on the road. Oh, and after heading home to play Chicago Friday, Philly plays San Antonio, Houston and Boston – all on the road – to make it 13 out of 17 away from home.
This is how coaches get fired, sportwriters get the cold shoulder around the house and teams drop out of the playoff race like a stone.
It’s the Raptors job to take advantage, however.
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Making any noise tonight or any time soon will require the Raptors to play like the Raptors. That means shooting the triple consistently and making foul shots. From Deep reader Chris, it turns out, has a pretty sharp blog called T.Jose Caldeford and he aptly demonstrates how the Raptors booted their last two games by stumbling in those key areas. They also need to pick up their efforts defending the three point line, as Chris points out also.
For my own two cents, Mitchell likes to say he can live with team’s beating them if they are making contested threes, which is fine, except teams don’t have to take too many contested threes against Toronto.
The Raptors allows other clubs to hit 38 per cent of their three pointers, tying them with four other teams for worst in the NBA in that category. Just for comparison, the Phoenix Suns make 38 per cent of their three-point attempts, and rank fifth in the NBA. Right now the Raptors are turning every team they play into the Phoenix Suns, at least from the three-point line. That kind of defence negates any advantage the Raptors have from the three-point line in a hurry.
Anyway, over to Chris:
“Looking back at their last 2 games, I know it was frustrating to watch Lebron James' go off in the 4th (maybe make someone other than LeBron or 3-point specialist Damon Jones hit a shot), but I really don't think the Raptors played all that poorly except for a few GLARING stats:
In the last 2 games, the Raps went 10-32 (31%) from 3-point land. Detroit and Cleveland went 17-34 (50%).
In the last 2 games, the Raps shot 29-46 (63%) from the free-throw line. Detroit and Cleveland made 29 of 39 attempts (74%).
If the Raptors had merely shot three-pointers and free throws at their season averages (41% and 80% respectively), that would have meant an extra 17.4 points in those 2 games.
Granted, Cleveland and Detroit might defend the three-point line better than other teams in the NBA, but you don't defend free throws. And secondly, the three-pointers allowed has been an alarming stat for the Raptors in the last little while. Simply put, they haven't been defending the three-point shot during this 3-week slide.
NBA teams make 6.3 three pointers per game at a rate of around 35%. Toronto's last 10 opponents have made 8.2 threes per game at a clip of 41%. That's about a 6-point per game difference.
Why can't the Raps defend the three? I'd welcome all explanations. But here's one possible theory: The Raptors rely way too much on help defence from their perimeter defenders. This was really evident against Cleveland and in the game against Phoenix at the ACC a while back.
When Lebron or Nash drove, too often, a Carlos Delfino or Jason Kapono would fall off their man trying to help out, and it was all-too-easy for LBJ or Nash to simply kick it out to the open man for the three. The Raptor defenders need to be aware of who they're covering and plan their help defence around those assignments. If you're covering Damon Jones or Rasheed Wallace, sorry, no help from you. If you're covering Devin Brown or Jason Maxiell, go right ahead.”
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Chris also has a long list of possible trade machinations the Raptors could/should make, for those who like to torture themselves that way. I’ll have a look at get back another time.
