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If you watch Hockey Night in Canada, you may assume there has been no increase in NHL goal scoring, despite the crackdown on restraining fouls.
And even if there has been a small improvement, you may believe it is attributable to the large number of power plays being called.
A big part of the Hockey Night message is: Zero tolerance has not helped improve the game offensively.
But the first assumption is wrong and the second is questionable.
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After all, goal scoring is up 10 per cent from 2003-04, which was the last season of the “old” NHL, when obstruction fouls weren't being called.
The argument that a massive increase in the number of power plays – Ron MacLean of Hockey Night used the figure 18,000 last Saturday – has inflated goal-scoring statistics doesn't ring true either, because even-strength goal scoring is up 9 per cent from 2003-04.
The number of power plays has certainly increased, starting in 2005-06 with zero tolerance. But it hasn't gone up as much as you might think.
In 2003-04, referees called 8.9 power plays a game (defined as a one-man advantage). In 2005-06, when coaches, players and referees were grappling with the new rule enforcement, the number rose to 12.5. Since then, the number of power plays has decreased. Last season at this point, there was an average of 10.6 a game. This season, it's 9.1, a small increase, 2.2 per cent, from the 8.9 in 2003-04.
Let's look at power-play goals. In 2005-06, the total jumped to 857 at this point in the season, compared with 573 in 2003-04. But last season, the number dropped to 695. This season, it stands at 631 before last night's games, an increase of 10 per cent from 2003-04.
It's wrong, therefore, to assume more power-play goals are being scored because of a proportional increase in the number of power-play opportunities.
Power-play goal scoring is up 10 per cent, while the number of power-play opportunities has increased only 2.2 per cent.
It's the elimination of the traditional forms of obstruction that is allowing teams to enjoy more success with the man advantage.
It is true, however, that even-strength goal scoring has decreased from last season. At this point in 2006-07, 1,537 goals had been scored. This season, the number was down to 1,453 before last night, a drop of 5.4 per cent.
But, as we've noted, even-strength goal scoring is still up considerably from 2003-04, and the guess is it won't decrease much more, because of measures planned that include the further reduction of goaltenders' equipment. As well, Buffalo Sabres managing partner Larry Quinn is proposing that an independent committee look into ways to rid the game of the neutral zone trap.
One obvious way to do that, in the long term, is to increase the width of the ice by seven or eight feet. That would give the team with the puck more room to get around the checkers.
But the important point is this: 118 more even-strength goals have been scored this season than in 2003-04. That's progress.
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