Canada goes into the World Cup of rugby as an 80-to-1 long shot to reach the quarter-finals, but if the Canadians can defend as well as they are being defended — they're under a security blanket at the World Cup in France because of Canada's involvement in Afghanistan — they may pull off a surprise.
Bookmakers say the 13th-ranked Canadians are a 32-point underdog against eighth-ranked Wales in Sunday's crucial opening match for both teams in the 20-country tournament.
Team officials see a glimmer of hope because it's the first game, and the Canadians — boasting 18 pros — are all healthy. Some veterans are on the cusp of retirement and inspired to go out with a bang for coach Ric Suggitt. And the Welsh are under pressure, after playing like sad sacks under their new coach. They've won only four of 16 Tests for Gareth Jenkins and recently were pasted 34-7 by third-ranked France.
"Everything comes down to this first game," said Graham Brown, chief executive officer of Rugby Canada.
The object of the 20 teams' affections: the Webb Ellis Cup. (AFP/Getty Images)
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"We probably need three wins in four games to advance, and we could handily beat Fiji and Japan in our group."
Canada doesn't have a chance to upset second-ranked Australia, so that means the remaining win must come against Wales.
"If you look at our best 22 players against their best 22, we stacked up very well, and the old boys, Morgan Williams, Rod Snow and Mike James, are very motivated to close out their careers with a good World Cup," Brown said. "If Wales was the fourth game we played, we'd have injuries, so there's no better time for us to be playing the Welsh than in the opener."
The Canadians have been in France for a week and have been one of the teams under a security watch because of Canada's participation in Afghanistan. The security has its good side: the Canadians are escorted everywhere by guards; there's no waiting in lineups; and four motorcycles, sirens blaring, accompany the team bus to and from practices, forcing traffic aside.
"It should have taken us 45 minutes to get back to our hotel from a practice in Bordeaux in rush hour. Instead, we were back in 10," said Canadian high-performance director Geraint John, a former Cardiff player capped for Wales 10 times in his playing career.
The Canadians have plenty of familiarity with the Welsh game. Players such as the veteran Snow have played there and three quarters of the team play overseas and see Welsh players regularly. Suggitt wants to jump on Wales from the start and exploit any insecurities.
"I will look for basic things, like making the first tackle and getting that first touch on the ball and making the right decision," Suggitt said in an interview with the Welsh media at The Western Mail.
"For us, physically we are fine as athletes and we have to make sure we are mentally and emotionally prepared for the game.
"I do not think that will be a problem going into a World Cup game. We will be fine."
The Welsh got good news yesterday that fly-half Stephen Jones has been ruled fit, after going down with a groin injury during training in France two weeks ago. The Canada match will be his 63rd international cap.
New Zealand's All Blacks, coached by Graham Henry, are favoured to win the six-week tournament, and to end a 20-year-drought. Since winning in 1987, they've only been in one final, 1995. The All Blacks have won 38 of 43 matches since 2004 — a success rate of 88 per cent — yet have fallen short as favourites at World Cups.
In 2003 they were knocked out by Australia in the semi-finals and this time they'll be pushed by the South African Springboks and host French.
South Africa is in Pool A with defending champion England, which has been rocked by an ankle ligament injury to star fly-half Jonny Wilkinson, the man who kicked the winning drop-goal in the 2003 final against Australia.
